Author Topic: Radiation  (Read 629495 times)

Offline benparry

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Re: Radiation
« Reply #510 on: March 27, 2018, 08:48:25 AM »
just on the subject of GCR does anybody know of a chart of diagram showing the GCR spectrum and possible frequency of each

Offline Count Zero

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Re: Radiation
« Reply #511 on: March 27, 2018, 10:17:04 AM »
tim does not have those abilities as he look at two sets of data and concluded one of them must be faked, instead of asking the question what factors are present in each set that MAY make both correct and still look entirely different, to an unprofessional mind.

It wasn't even that.  He accepted the Apollo data set as genuine, but because the numbers were lower in most (but not all!) cases, the missions must not have gone to the Moon, therefore ALL of the landings were faked.  At the same time, he asserted that his expected dose rates were not fatal or even particularly dangerous (I repeat:  He accepted the Apollo 14 as being in his "acceptable" range) - they were simply more than the "official" data showed... but somehow this meant everything was faked.

I can't even begin to understand the logical disconnect in this attitude.  Gillianren & I pinged him again and again on this point (at least 7 times, I think).  In his fevered imagination, Tim imagined that "moon-walking robots" left the footprints and collected the samples (feats that even modern robots can't come close to).  Wouldn't the mustache-twirling villains in his head simply send their dosimeters along with these missions to bring back the "correct" dosage data?

At any rate, anyone who knows anything about these astronauts or the times in which they lived knows that they would not have balked if the expected mission dose was ten times what Tim imagines.  I said it before:  Bill Anders gave himself a 1-in-3 chance of dying on the Apollo 8 mission Link, page 12.

Tim repeatedly claimed that he was here only to argue about the radiation numbers, but he also said his numbers were not show-stoppers.  I really would have liked to have read (in his own words) his reasoning (I use the term loosely) why he preferred to believe the missions were faked.

"What makes one step a giant leap is all the steps before."

Offline gillianren

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Re: Radiation
« Reply #512 on: March 27, 2018, 10:52:16 AM »
Uum I thought about that but since we were being bombarded by some rather discourteous one liners, I stopped, sorry.

The first time he used the word, I hadn't commented yet (my boyfriend and I spent a night away from the kids for our fifteenth anniversary, and even if I'd had a computer with me, I wasn't inclined to spend the time arguing with an HB!), so I let it slide.  The second time was after I'd commented, and I needed to make the observation.
"This sounds like a job for Bipolar Bear . . . but I just can't seem to get out of bed!"

"Conspiracy theories are an irresistible labour-saving device in the face of complexity."  --Henry Louis Gates

Offline Bryanpoprobson

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Re: Radiation
« Reply #513 on: March 27, 2018, 10:53:58 AM »
Uum I thought about that but since we were being bombarded by some rather discourteous one liners, I stopped, sorry.

The first time he used the word, I hadn't commented yet (my boyfriend and I spent a night away from the kids for our fifteenth anniversary, and even if I'd had a computer with me, I wasn't inclined to spend the time arguing with an HB!), so I let it slide.  The second time was after I'd commented, and I needed to make the observation.

Happy (belated) Anniversary wishes.
"Wise men speak because they have something to say!" "Fools speak, because they have to say something!" (Plato)

Offline AtomicDog

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Re: Radiation
« Reply #514 on: March 27, 2018, 11:05:56 AM »
yes i introduced him there also lol i believe a gent called grant engaged him there a lot
I thought he sounded familiar. I see that he's an expert at flouncing.
"There is no belief, however foolish, that will not gather its faithful adherents who will defend it to the death." - Isaac Asimov

Offline benparry

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Re: Radiation
« Reply #515 on: March 27, 2018, 11:53:56 AM »
are you Grant atomic dog

Offline AtomicDog

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Re: Radiation
« Reply #516 on: March 27, 2018, 12:24:30 PM »
are you Grant atomic dog

Nope. Just a space exploration fan and a Trekkie with a smart mouth.
"There is no belief, however foolish, that will not gather its faithful adherents who will defend it to the death." - Isaac Asimov

Offline JayUtah

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Re: Radiation
« Reply #517 on: March 27, 2018, 12:29:23 PM »
Is this an example of the Dunning-Kruger Effect?

I'm reluctant to say because this isn't really my area of specialty.  Dunning and Kruger studied competence and its effect on subjects' ability to judge their own competence and that of others.  It also briefly studied the mutability of this phenomenon.  My feeling is -- and this goes beyond just Tim -- that many fringe claimants exhibit behavior that Dunning and Kruger didn't study, but which might be related to or involved in some way with what they did uncover.  If I second-guess how psychologists tend to think through these problems, I would say that they would see a difference between simply misjudging competence and responding to it with hostility.

Keep in mind also that fringe argumentation often wants to invoke different modes of thinking.  A person may recognize that others are, say, "book smart" about something while he has a certain intuition or insight that provides expertise in a different way or via different means.  I don't think any such effect was made visible in "Unskilled and unaware of it," Dunning and Kruger's seminal paper.  They made no distinctions in different constructions of competence.  To borrow an example from the paper, someone who has objectively poor grammar skills would be said to lack the metacognition necessary to recognize that he was unskilled.  And he would be similarly ill equipped to judge the grammar skills of another person.  But in the paper, that subject would believe he is competent in the normal way, not in some alternative way he invented to make up for an acknowledged deficiency in the standard mode of knowledge.  My impression is that psychologists would see that as a significant departure from Dunning and Kruger's conclusions.
"Facts are stubborn things." --John Adams

Offline AtomicDog

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Re: Radiation
« Reply #518 on: March 27, 2018, 12:35:39 PM »
are you Grant atomic dog

Nope. Just a space exploration fan and a Trekkie with a smart mouth.

I'm AtomicDog on Cosmoquest, too. I don't wear socks.
"There is no belief, however foolish, that will not gather its faithful adherents who will defend it to the death." - Isaac Asimov

Offline JayUtah

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Re: Radiation
« Reply #519 on: March 27, 2018, 12:47:37 PM »
Thank you for the vote of confidence. In the interests of transparency however, I should say that I am a biochemist and not a qualified expert on any matters of radiation, so my opinion in a court of law on a subject involving radiation really shouldn't hold too much sway.

I know that.  The point was trying to make was much broader and softer than that, and allows for some license.  Fringe claimants generally eschew the whole notion of formal knowledge and formal, adjudicated training.  My point was that there is such a thing as legitimate expertise and it does have legitimate value.  And the opinion of experts does matter over the opinions of laymen, at least in terms of which one is more likely to be true.

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To the broader point, however, it does raise the question of where the line is between accepting the testimony of a professional expert and requiring them to provide corroboration.

In American courts the foundation that must be laid for expert testimony is quite stringent.  Not only do you have to establish your credentials, you have to be able to document that the work you did leading to your opinion was sound and performed according to accepted methods.  The presenting party has to establish that there is some reasonable agreement among similarly qualified experts that would make it a decidable question.  All my work would have to be turned over to the other party.  Everything relevant that I do from the moment the attorney says, "I'm engaging your service as an expert witness in this matter" is discoverable.

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Someone asked to testify on a matter in their field in which their opinion is based on their accrued knowledge rather than ability to point to a specific reference would quite probably be unable to cite a specific publication or report simply because it would be lost in the pool of knowledge they have acquired.

That's subsumed in the c.v. you would present to the court as part of the court deciding whether you can testify as an expert.  It is presumed that academic preparation, granted degrees, published research, and professional practice accumulate to being able to speak knowledgeably about uncontested facts in the field without requiring specific citations.

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As it was when I brought up the plan to orient the spacecraft to put the bulk of it between the crew and the sun. I know that was the plan, I've read it in many sources over the last few years, but I could not point anyone to the precise document from NASA that describes it, as some HBs would have me do.

That particular question would be subsumed in my c.v., including my work here and on my web site.  Someone who is called as an expert in space history would be given leave to recite facts that are common knowledge in the field, even if they are not generally known.  But that's a gray area.  Expert testimony is meant to interpret difficult facts for the jury.  It's up to the jury to determine, to the best of their knowledge, what is fact.  A conscientious lawyer would either ask you to research it or have it researched on his own so that it could be documented in a brief to the court.

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...was insufficient because we could not provide a specific documented justification that it would work in this instance.

This is the lament of experts the world over.
"Facts are stubborn things." --John Adams

Offline JayUtah

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Re: Radiation
« Reply #520 on: March 27, 2018, 01:02:10 PM »
just on the subject of GCR does anybody know of a chart of diagram showing the GCR spectrum and possible frequency of each

I assume you mean flux versus energy.  Yes, they're all over the place.  There's no One True Reading, of course, because they all apply to specific circumstances and make different assumptions in the measurement and massaging of the phenomenon.

Here's a canned Google search:
https://www.google.com/search?q=hze+energy+flux&client=firefox-b&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwij0_ql_YzaAhXG5p8KHQWzAGsQ_AUICygC&biw=1920&bih=937#imgrc=_
"Facts are stubborn things." --John Adams

Offline benparry

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Re: Radiation
« Reply #521 on: March 27, 2018, 01:15:08 PM »
I was just trying to find out how frequent the high energy particles of the GCR are.

Offline benparry

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Re: Radiation
« Reply #522 on: March 27, 2018, 01:56:56 PM »
I did a little study of my own for a change lol and found that 85 percent of GCR is hydrogen. I also read that we can shield against this quite well. is this basically why GCR isn't a show stopper for a short term mission

Offline JayUtah

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Re: Radiation
« Reply #523 on: March 27, 2018, 02:41:43 PM »
I was just trying to find out how frequent the high energy particles of the GCR are.

And as usual, the answer is, "It depends..."  You're not the first to ask this.  In fact, every damn time I'm on television or giving an interview or something, the host -- who honestly never has any ulterior motives -- wants a simple answer.  "So how much radiation is there in the Van Allen belts?"  Well, it depends...  But they want a number.  Their job is to commit the interviewee to some particulat thing, because wishy-washy answers lack punch.  It's also their job to interpret and simplify things for their readers, to cut through the tech-speke.  They aren't even usually interested in correctish sound-bites such as, "Well, it depends on your exact path, how fast you're going, and the construction of your space vehicle."

I picked this one at random.
https://space.stackexchange.com/questions/9331/how-do-the-effects-of-different-cosmic-rays-compare

It has the shape I'm familiar with, which is humpy at the low-energy side and sharply falling off on the high-energy side.  The first thing to notice is that they've broken out the data by particle species.  The letters up in the data field are the chemical symbols of the elements whose nucleii are plotted in that particular point shape.  You've got hydrogen, helium, carbon, and iron.  Someone else's graph might have different species.  These are just the nucleii of those elements; no electrons.  That's why the graph labels mention "nucleon".  They want you to remember that the data is categorized and plotted on the same scales.

The x-axis is energy in millions of electron-volts (MeV).  The scale is exponential, in case that's not obvious.  This happens all the time in astrophysics (well, physics in general).  You're often not interested in the changes in a phenomenon that amount to only marginal increases or decreases.  You're interested in order-of-magnitude changes.  It's how the Richter scale works in principle for earthquakes.

The y-axis is flux, which is what we term frequency when we're talking about particle flow.  That axis label looks like modem line noise, so I'll walk you through it.  It's all exponentiated to -1, which is shorthand for putting it all in a denominator.  So read all the elements of the label as "per this" or "per that."  The implied numerator is "number of particles."  The first element is "per square meter," which normalizes the area of the conceptual window through which the particles are flying.

Next is "per sr" or "per steradian."  That's a measurement of solid angles.  I'm going to assume you know or can figure out what a solid angle is.  GCR is istotropic, meaning it comes from all directions.  It doesn't matter which direction your window is facing; it will get the same flow.  SPEs, in contrast, are directional.  If you were drawing this graph for one of those, you wouldn't say "per [solid angle]" because the measurement would be different depending on which particular part of the sky you were facing.  In that case you'd specify the direction of measurement.

Then "per s" for "per second," since flux is, after all, a rate.  Then the "MeV/nucleon" to remind is that this is a categorized reading.  The scale of the y-axis graph is also exponential, but in the negative direction.  10-1 particles per second makes sense if you think about it as one particle every 100 seconds.  It's not like they're measuring fractional particles.

The highest reading on the graph is for hydrogen, at 2 particles per second, per solid angle, per square meter occurring at about 102.1 MeV -- about 126 MeV.  I've seen other graphs where the flux peak is closer to 30 MeV, but I don't remember what circumstances applied to it.  But the 2 particles per second figure is only for that one energy level.  If you want to know the flux for all energies, you need to integrate -- that is, use calculus.  If you're just out in space bare naked, you're exposed to all the energies.  So you'd need to integrate from the lowest energy to the highest, essentially adding up all the fluxes at each of the energies as you go.  More typically we want to estimate an exposure, which means you apply the effects of shielding, if any, and integrate only over those energies that are significant notwithstanding the shield.  That gives you the flux behind the shield, which is what some astronaut's dosimeter would be seeing.  Then you would integrate that over exposure time to get a new value called fluence.  If flux varies over time for any reason, the integral can get interesting.  Fluence is most directly connected to cumulative exposure, such as what a dosimeter would give you at the end of the day.

The dosimeter method just skips to the end.  It won't necessarily differentiate between kinds of radiation (although many do), or keep a detailed breakdown of whether it was a little bit over a long time, or a lot in a short time.  A health physicist's first question will be what the total absorbed dose is.  Imagine filling up a pitcher at the sink, where you vary the water flow by idly twisting the knob as it fills.  Sure, a physicist can get all over that and integrate the varying flow rate over time and predict with math how much water ended up in the pitcher.  But the quick and dirty method is just to measure the amount of water that got in there.  This is essentially what Tim's dosimeter data does.  It doesn't account for different sources of radiation.  It doesn't account for varying effects of shielding.  It doesn't account for natural fluctuations in the dose rate.  It just gives you total accumulated dose.  Of course in practice the Apollo crews read off their dosimeter readings at periodic intervals, so we at least have some time-varied data.
"Facts are stubborn things." --John Adams

Offline JayUtah

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Re: Radiation
« Reply #524 on: March 27, 2018, 03:04:03 PM »
I did a little study of my own for a change lol and found that 85 percent of GCR is hydrogen.

Hydrogen nucleii, or simple protons.  And you'll find percentages varying around 90%.

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I also read that we can shield against this quite well. is this basically why GCR isn't a show stopper for a short term mission.

It depends...  ;D

A proton can interact with an aluminum shield in a number of ways.  Those result in different species of secondary radiation, ranging from none to significant.  The trick is simply to provide enough thickness of aluminum that the secondary radiation can be absorbed in the inner portion of the shield and attenuated to a sustainable level.  The goal is almost never to get to zero.  In all the different collision modes, the primary proton is an ejectile, but it leaves with considerably less energy than it came in with.  If that proton should wind up hitting your liver, you hope that it does so at low energy and thereby deposits only a very small amount of energy.  That's sort of the thumbnail sketch of shielding theory.

If the shielding is composed principally of hydrogen, there is a limit to what the worst-case proton collision (direct elastic hit on the nucleus) can produce by way of secondary ejectiles.  In higher-Z materials, significantly massive chunks of shattered nucleus may be recoiled.  The problem is that ideal materials like water pose handling problems in space.  Wanting to shield with water complicates the other parts of the engineering.  Similarly with high-density polyethylene, another "ideal" absorber.  Stopping power is a function purely of a material's mass density for a given energy dissipation rate.  It's not a function of shield chemistry.  Therefore to get enough polyethylene thickness to stop very high energy protons, you need many centimeters of it since it's less dense than metals.  Again that complicates other aspects of spacecraft design.

Aluminum is the material of choice because it has excellent properties for other requirements in spacecraft engineering.  But in terms of radiation attenuation it's a semi-optimal compromise.  It's low enough Z that the secondary radiation it produces is reasonably tolerable.  And it's dense enough to provide reasonable stopping power in thicknesses that don't become onerous for the rest of the design.  It's a great example of typical engineering tradeoff.
"Facts are stubborn things." --John Adams