Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 11434 times)

Offline Glom

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #135 on: July 02, 2021, 03:20:23 PM »
There's also a supply issue, right now Pfizer is in short supply (in Ontario at least if not Canada as a whole), so people getting their second dose are, apparently, more likely to receive Moderna even if they had Pfizer as the first shot.

Media in the U.S. are reporting that mixing vaccines has been show to be safe and effective.

Yes. Reports now AZ+something else better against delta than AZ+AZ.

Offline LunarOrbit

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #136 on: July 04, 2021, 11:02:13 AM »
I got my second shot on Monday. First shot was AstraZeneca, second was Moderna. I felt like I had a minor cold after the first shot, but the second kicked my butt... I had sore muscles and joints, a fever, and a headache the next day. Totally worth it though.
It suddenly struck me that that tiny pea, pretty and blue, was the Earth.
I put up my thumb and shut one eye, and my thumb blotted out the planet Earth.
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Offline bknight

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #137 on: July 04, 2021, 11:17:18 AM »
I wonder what the booster will do to us physically.  We suffered only minor symptoms from Pfizer 1 and 2.
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Offline Obviousman

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #138 on: July 04, 2021, 04:19:36 PM »
Ditto AZ 1 & 2.

Offline gillianren

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #139 on: July 05, 2021, 11:53:45 AM »
I wonder what can be done to persuade more people to get the shot.  One of our counties--unsurprisingly to me in the southeast corner of the state--is at less than 25% fully vaccinated.
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Offline Obviousman

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #140 on: July 05, 2021, 04:31:05 PM »
At time of posting, in Australia, only about 9% are fully vaccinated. And this amazes me: amongst the 70+ age group nationally, who are at most at risk, only 16.6% are fully vaccinated!
« Last Edit: July 05, 2021, 04:32:40 PM by Obviousman »

Offline molesworth

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #141 on: July 05, 2021, 04:52:02 PM »
At time of posting, in Australia, only about 9% are fully vaccinated. And this amazes me: amongst the 70+ age group nationally, who are at most at risk, only 16.6% are fully vaccinated!
Perhaps it's because Australia has done so well in controlling the spread of infections that a lot of people don't think there's as much risk.  People will likely think that if the measures so far have kept everyone reasonably safe, then vaccination is just an extra add-on which they can get round to as and when.

Although I have to say just about all my friends and rellies in Oz have had theirs.
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Offline Peter B

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #142 on: July 05, 2021, 08:21:42 PM »
At time of posting, in Australia, only about 9% are fully vaccinated. And this amazes me: amongst the 70+ age group nationally, who are at most at risk, only 16.6% are fully vaccinated!
Perhaps it's because Australia has done so well in controlling the spread of infections that a lot of people don't think there's as much risk.  People will likely think that if the measures so far have kept everyone reasonably safe, then vaccination is just an extra add-on which they can get round to as and when.

Although I have to say just about all my friends and rellies in Oz have had theirs.

Partly that, but more because supply of vaccines has been pretty low. And on top of that, most of the available vaccine supply has been AZ which is now not recommended for under-40s.

As one state Chief Health Officer said, she didn't want an 18-year-old to die from blood clots caused by the vaccine who'd be less likely to die if they caught COVID. (Still, I'm not sure I accept the logic - there's more to consider than the relative likelihood of dying from COVID or the vaccine, such as how likely that person is to infect others if they're vaccinated or unvaccinated.)

Offline nikolai

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #143 on: July 06, 2021, 08:24:45 AM »
As one state Chief Health Officer said, she didn't want an 18-year-old to die from blood clots caused by the vaccine who'd be less likely to die if they caught COVID. (Still, I'm not sure I accept the logic - there's more to consider than the relative likelihood of dying from COVID or the vaccine, such as how likely that person is to infect others if they're vaccinated or unvaccinated.)

I think there are some other issues there as well.

The reason Australia has kept the case numbers low, is because they have imposed serious restrictions on travel, and have quarantines when there is an outbreak.

So are they going to keep doing this, forever?

Are they going to wait until the rest of the world gets things under control (largely using vaccination), and then open up?  Well unless the rest of the world eradicates the virus (unlikely), then it will eventually get back to Australia and its largely unvaccinated population, and it's back to the beginning.

I see a few options here.

a) Live under serious restrictions, forever.

b) Let the virus rip through the largely unvaccinated population, and who gets sick gets sick, and who dies dies.

c) Get the needles out and start vaccinating.  Well I know they've already been vaccinating, but vaccinate more.

Are there other options?

Offline gillianren

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #144 on: July 06, 2021, 11:33:05 AM »
As one state Chief Health Officer said, she didn't want an 18-year-old to die from blood clots caused by the vaccine who'd be less likely to die if they caught COVID. (Still, I'm not sure I accept the logic - there's more to consider than the relative likelihood of dying from COVID or the vaccine, such as how likely that person is to infect others if they're vaccinated or unvaccinated.)

Not to mention that the effects of "long COVID" appear to be pretty nasty.
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Offline Zakalwe

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #145 on: July 07, 2021, 05:45:59 AM »
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Offline gillianren

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #146 on: July 07, 2021, 10:52:44 AM »
The courts at least seem pretty clear that your employer does indeed have the right to force you to get vaccinated.  Thank goodness.
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Offline Peter B

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #147 on: July 07, 2021, 11:01:12 AM »
Good old deep South Republican states....

https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/07/hospital-ceo-tells-vaccine-disparagers-to-shut-up-as-delta-slams-missouri/

No cure for stupid.

Reading the comments to the article introduced me to Rep. Boeberts's solution for dealing with the Delta variant. Innovative perhaps, but deeply unpatriotic: it didn't involve singing the national anthem and saluting the flag.  ::)

Offline Zakalwe

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #148 on: July 08, 2021, 03:18:06 AM »
Good old deep South Republican states....

https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/07/hospital-ceo-tells-vaccine-disparagers-to-shut-up-as-delta-slams-missouri/

No cure for stupid.

Reading the comments to the article introduced me to Rep. Boeberts's solution for dealing with the Delta variant. Innovative perhaps, but deeply unpatriotic: it didn't involve singing the national anthem and saluting the flag.  ::)

The Republican party seems to have gone full death-cult. And yet people will vote for them, no matter what they do.
"The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that 'my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.' " - Isaac Asimov

Offline nikolai

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #149 on: July 08, 2021, 12:39:28 PM »
The Republican party seems to have gone full death-cult.

I am not sure in what sense you mean this.  If you mean in the sense that the party is taking actions that will lead to its own extinction, well, maybe.  But . . .

And yet people will vote for them, no matter what they do.

I'm not sure I'm onboard with that one.  No matter what they do, they will get some votes, but they will be from different people, depending on what they do.  At present, there is a Democrat in the White House, and Democrats control both the congress and the senate, so if there are people who vote for Republicans no matter what they do, there aren't enough of them to keep the Republicans in power.

A moderate Republican tends to do reasonably well in general elections, but a hard-right Republican tends to beat the moderate Republican in primary elections.  Ask any Republican in congress, of whom they're afraid - their answer may well not be the democrats.  It is often that, if they are deemed insufficiently conservative, they will face a primary challenge from someone claiming to be a "true" Republican, instead of the Democrat in disguise, or the "RINO", or whatever derogatory term they are using for insufficiently "conservative" Republican candidates.

At the presidential level, here are the people who have run since 1980:

1980 - Ronald Reagan - won
1984 - Ronald Reagan - won
1988 - George H Bush - won
1992 - George H Bush - lost
1996 - Bob Dole - lost
2000 - George W Bush - won (although lost popular vote by relatively narrow margin)
2004 - George W Bush - won
2008 - John McCain - lost
2012 - Mitt Romney - lost
2016 - Donald Trump - won (although lost popular vote by relatively larger margin)
2020 - Donald Trump - lost

So let's look at the Republicans who lost - George H Bush (in 1992), Bob Dole, John McCain, Mitt Romney, Donald Trump (in 2020).

If you ask me, apart from Donald Trump in 2020, that's the list of the more moderate Republican candidates.  (You could make a case for Reagan being "moderate" by today's standards, although he would have been considered pretty conservative in the 1980s.)

How about those who won - Reagan (twice), George H Bush (in 1988), George W Bush (twice), Donald Trump (in 2016).  The only one who wasn't "hard-right" by the standards of the time was George H Bush.

So, if you look at hard-right and moderate Republican presidential candidates, there's a pretty strong correlation (when you classify them the way I do) with winning and losing.  If you classify them as "hard-right" or "moderate" differently than I do, you might reach a different conclusion.

The senate tends to be more moderate than the congress, because a candidate has to appeal to the whole state rather than a single district (the exception being the small states, where the district is the entire state).  So there's a reason why you tend to see relatively more nut jobs (and not always Republican ones) in the congress than in the senate.  But the congress is where the big danger for Republicans is not the Democrats (most of the districts are gerrymandered to be relatively "safe" for one party or the other), but the within-party challenge from a more conservative Republican.  To take a hypothetical example, how would Arnold Schwarzenegger do if he ran for congress in Orange County?  The place was a Republican stronghold for decades, then Democrats did a clean sweep of the congressional seats in 2018.  If there is a Republican who can beat Democrats in California, Arnold Schwarzenegger just might be that Republican.  But can he beat more conservative Republicans in a primary election?  He won in all of California, but how about in Orange County?

So it seems there is a balancing act.  The more right-wing and wacko you are, the more likely the Republican base is to support you (not all of them, there are plenty of Republicans who hate the extremists - just not enough of them).  But the more wacko you are, the less likely you are to appeal to swing voters.  In congressional districts, the swing voters don't matter that much, because everything is gerrymandered.  But in presidential elections, my judgement is (and we are working off of pretty limited data, there is only one election every four years) that appealing to the wacko vote gains you more than it loses from the non-wacko centrist vote.