Yeah, I could give a fully detailed link budget, but I'll do it only if someone here is interested. The Youtube conspiracy crowd is far beyond help.

A link budget is a full spreadsheet-style accounting of the signal and noise levels at each point in a communications link. The bottom line is a received signal-to-noise ratio. If it's high enough for the modulation chosen, then the system will work; the link is said to be closed ("closed" like an electrical switch, not a valve in a pipe...) The signal calculations assume only geometry (especially the inverse square law) and conservation of energy. The noise calculations are based on thermodynamics, particularly an understanding of what Boltzmann's constant 'k' means, which in turn assumes a knowledge of statistics.

But the point is that all of this stuff is routinely verified every day, including by individuals such as radio hams who aren't experts in thermodynamics. And reality always rules.