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Apollo Discussions => The Reality of Apollo => Topic started by: Echnaton on February 14, 2019, 07:07:33 PM

Title: NASA returning to the moon
Post by: Echnaton on February 14, 2019, 07:07:33 PM
CNET has a report that NASA will announce some major contracts to build the hardware needed to establish a permanent presence on the moon.  On the 50th anniversary of the A11 landing of course. Without the funding in the current budget to back the program, it seems to be some wishful thinking.  But maybe they have the political support lined up. We'll see.


https://www.cnet.com/news/nasa-pushing-hard-to-get-back-to-the-moon-this-year-really/

Title: Re: NASA returning to the moon
Post by: bknight on February 14, 2019, 08:20:32 PM
It would be nice to have a program and funding,but I don'tthink the left leaning House will vote for it.
Title: Re: NASA returning to the moon
Post by: apollo16uvc on February 15, 2019, 11:16:35 AM
To be honest, I am not convinced.

NASA has been saying this for decades.

I guess without the financial strain of the Shuttle and construction of the ISS, there is more room financially?

Will see.
Title: Re: NASA returning to the moon
Post by: AtomicDog on February 15, 2019, 12:12:55 PM
It would be nice to have a program and funding,but I don'tthink the left leaning House will vote for it.

Why not?
Title: Re: NASA returning to the moon
Post by: bknight on February 15, 2019, 12:25:52 PM
It would be nice to have a program and funding,but I don'tthink the left leaning House will vote for it.

Why not?

Social(more politically correct) programs will get the liberals attention, not an increased space budget, IMO.
Title: Re: NASA returning to the moon
Post by: AtomicDog on February 15, 2019, 12:55:30 PM
It would be nice to have a program and funding,but I don'tthink the left leaning House will vote for it.



Why not?

Social(more politically correct) programs will get the liberals attention, not an increased space budget, IMO.

A Pew Research Center study in 2015 came up with this:
 http://www.pewresearch.org/science/2015/07/01/chapter-8-attitudes-on-space-issues/  (http://www.pewresearch.org/science/2015/07/01/chapter-8-attitudes-on-space-issues/)

"There are no differences between party groups on opinion about the space station. But, liberals express more positive views than moderates or conservatives about the country’s investment in the space station."

Granted, the ISS and Lunar exploration are a bit different, but I think that they are similar enough that it would be presumptuous to assume a negative liberal view on the latter.

Title: Re: NASA returning to the moon
Post by: bknight on February 15, 2019, 04:39:38 PM
It would be nice to have a program and funding,but I don'tthink the left leaning House will vote for it.



Why not?

Social(more politically correct) programs will get the liberals attention, not an increased space budget, IMO.

A Pew Research Center study in 2015 came up with this:
 http://www.pewresearch.org/science/2015/07/01/chapter-8-attitudes-on-space-issues/  (http://www.pewresearch.org/science/2015/07/01/chapter-8-attitudes-on-space-issues/)

"There are no differences between party groups on opinion about the space station. But, liberals express more positive views than moderates or conservatives about the country’s investment in the space station."

Granted, the ISS and Lunar exploration are a bit different, but I think that they are similar enough that it would be presumptuous to assume a negative liberal view on the latter.

I hadn't seen that one but I vividly remember Ralph Abernathy marching with a few hundred followers outside A 11 launch facilities.  Very shortly thereafter the axe stated falling on the Apollo program.
Title: Re: NASA returning to the moon
Post by: AtomicDog on February 15, 2019, 08:44:13 PM
It would be nice to have a program and funding,but I don'tthink the left leaning House will vote for it.



Why not?

Social(more politically correct) programs will get the liberals attention, not an increased space budget, IMO.

A Pew Research Center study in 2015 came up with this:
 http://www.pewresearch.org/science/2015/07/01/chapter-8-attitudes-on-space-issues/  (http://www.pewresearch.org/science/2015/07/01/chapter-8-attitudes-on-space-issues/)

"There are no differences between party groups on opinion about the space station. But, liberals express more positive views than moderates or conservatives about the country’s investment in the space station."

Granted, the ISS and Lunar exploration are a bit different, but I think that they are similar enough that it would be presumptuous to assume a negative liberal view on the latter.

I hadn't seen that one but I vividly remember Ralph Abernathy marching with a few hundred followers outside A 11 launch facilities.  Very shortly thereafter the axe stated falling on the Apollo program.

1. You're referencing an incident that happened nearly 50 years ago. Is it fair to judge the state of the liberal view of space exploration today based on that?

2. I thought that it was generally accepted that it was Richard Nixon that cancelled Apollo and replaced it with the Space Shuttle , because he wanted to get rid of a Democratic space legacy and replace it with his own. I really don't think that Nixon was inclined to listen to a bunch of "pointy-headed liberals".
Title: Re: NASA returning to the moon
Post by: bknight on February 16, 2019, 07:01:33 AM

1. You're referencing an incident that happened nearly 50 years ago. Is it fair to judge the state of the liberal view of space exploration today based on that?

2. I thought that it was generally accepted that it was Richard Nixon that cancelled Apollo and replaced it with the Space Shuttle , because he wanted to get rid of a Democratic space legacy and replace it with his own. I really don't think that Nixon was inclined to listen to a bunch of "pointy-headed liberals".

We have differing view points of the liberals and their agenda/power/influence.

ETA:
It is well understood that Nixon was not a space enthusiast, and IIRC wanted to cancel A-15, 16 and 17, but was influenced to change the cancellations to only include A-18-20.  The hardware had already been purchased and the only cost would have been mission operations, which were not inconsequential.  You may be correct in that he wanted to put his administration's brand on the next manned space operations.
Title: Re: NASA returning to the moon
Post by: AtomicDog on February 16, 2019, 09:03:54 AM

1. You're referencing an incident that happened nearly 50 years ago. Is it fair to judge the state of the liberal view of space exploration today based on that?

2. I thought that it was generally accepted that it was Richard Nixon that cancelled Apollo and replaced it with the Space Shuttle , because he wanted to get rid of a Democratic space legacy and replace it with his own. I really don't think that Nixon was inclined to listen to a bunch of "pointy-headed liberals".

We have differing view points of the liberals and their agenda/power/influence.

ETA:
It is well understood that Nixon was not a space enthusiast, and IIRC wanted to cancel A-15, 16 and 17, but was influenced to change the cancellations to only include A-18-20.  The hardware had already been purchased and the only cost would have been mission operations, which were not inconsequential.  You may be correct in that he wanted to put his administration's brand on the next manned space operations.

You are supporting your point of view based on a 50 year old incident. I am supporting mine based on current statistics.
Title: Re: NASA returning to the moon
Post by: bknight on February 16, 2019, 10:35:52 AM

You are supporting your point of view based on a 50 year old incident. I am supporting mine based on current statistics.

We shall see then.
Title: Re: NASA returning to the moon
Post by: apollo16uvc on February 16, 2019, 03:17:45 PM
Can't imagine Apollo 15 through 17 would have been canceled. Together with the LM the rover is the most iconic piece of hardware of the entire project.
Title: Re: NASA returning to the moon
Post by: bknight on February 16, 2019, 05:13:11 PM
Can't imagine Apollo 15 through 17 would have been canceled. Together with the LM the rover is the most iconic piece of hardware of the entire project.

I misremembered it was only 16 and 17.
https://www.wired.com/2013/09/ending-apollo-1968/
Title: Re: NASA returning to the moon
Post by: cjameshuff on February 17, 2019, 09:30:52 AM
To be honest, I am not convinced.

NASA has been saying this for decades.

I guess without the financial strain of the Shuttle and construction of the ISS, there is more room financially?

Will see.

They've replaced those with the financial strain of the SLS and Gateway station, which these contracts are designed around. The Gateway only exists because SLS can't launch Orion, a cargo payload, and a service module big enough to get it all to LLO in one launch, and SLS is poorly suited to sending payloads to LEO (being designed to send smaller payloads to higher energy orbits), plus has competition there that would make it look even more ridiculous. But SLS and Orion have to be used for political reasons, and the Gateway gives them somewhere they can reach.

But a reusable lander that could get to the Gateway from the moon wouldn't be small enough to launch as a co-manifested payload on SLS, which is why they're breaking it up into a tug, expendable descent stage, and an ascent module. It's a stupid way to do things, even Lockheed wanted to do a single piece reusable lander. Between propellant deliveries and replacement descent stages, all limited by the flight rate of SLS, it'll take years and several billions of dollars in SLS flights alone per lunar surface mission...and first they've got to build the Gateway. Which itself is chopped up into bits small enough to be co-manifested payload on SLS/Orion launches.

The whole thing seems designed to generate as many SLS/Orion flights as possible, making "progress" with each step without actually accomplishing anything.
Title: Re: NASA returning to the moon
Post by: bknight on February 17, 2019, 12:07:14 PM
Firt NASA has to build and test fly the SLS, and that is taking a long time for an expendable rocket.  Not to change the design, but perhaps NASA should start embracing the fully reusable rocket?
Title: Re: NASA returning to the moon
Post by: apollo16uvc on February 17, 2019, 02:07:29 PM
Progression died when NASA stopped using hasselblad camera's.
Title: Re: NASA returning to the moon
Post by: cjameshuff on February 17, 2019, 02:23:52 PM
Firt NASA has to build and test fly the SLS, and that is taking a long time for an expendable rocket.  Not to change the design, but perhaps NASA should start embracing the fully reusable rocket?

It's clear the "repurpose Shuttle hardware to reduce costs and speed development" strategy was as spectacular a failure at those goals as the Shuttle itself was (what a surprise). Changing direction to a reusable system would require more than a change in the design though, there's no quick fix for the lack of liftoff thrust or excess landing thrust and insufficient throttle control due to the propellant and engines used by the first stage.

Also, reusable vehicles are only even being discussed because private companies have stepped up to do what NASA should have been doing in advancing the state of the art in reusable vehicles. NASA shouldn't now be trying to compete with them, they should be providing them with contracts to encourage the development of those capabilities. They instead seem to be sticking their heads in the sand and ignoring what's going on. (the analogy to a flightless bird seems particularly appropriate here...)
Title: Re: NASA returning to the moon
Post by: bknight on February 17, 2019, 04:30:36 PM
I wouldn't call it competing, but more in the line of stretching resources.   Yes I agree that design changes would be difficult, but not impossible.
The Shuttle program wasn't thought out, frozen insulation for example.   Placement of the orbiter might have been different.   It does seem like NASA does stick its head in the sand or proceed with blinders.   Here I complain from the outside, but it seems like they could do better.
Title: Re: NASA returning to the moon
Post by: cjameshuff on February 17, 2019, 05:09:25 PM
I wouldn't call it competing, but more in the line of stretching resources.   Yes I agree that design changes would be difficult, but not impossible.

The core can't launch without boosters, it can't re-light its RS-25s and land on them. Salvaging and rebuilding the boosters was never particularly close to "reuse", and the new ones burn longer and reenter faster and further downrange, making things worse. The core needs higher thrust to get rid of the boosters, it needs to perform multiple burns in flight, and it needs to be able to reduce thrust by nearly an order of magnitude and still throttle rapidly and precisely over a wide range for landing.

This would be very difficult to achieve with hydrogen propellant, can't be done with the RS-25, and would realistically best be approached by clustering 7 or more engines using a hydrocarbon fuel...like Falcon 9, New Glenn, and Starship do. Changing the propellant to something denser drastically changes the dimensions of the tanks. The core will need its own avionics making it capable of independent flgiht and landing. It'd also have to stage much sooner to reduce reentry stresses, with the second stage providing much more of the launch delta-v.

Practically every detail of the design of SLS works against reuse. The changes to make it even partially reusable would constitute a complete redesign, discarding most of the Shuttle-derived technologies. At most you'd reuse some of the tank design, but even that would need major changes to insulation, etc.
Title: Re: NASA returning to the moon
Post by: Echnaton on February 17, 2019, 08:47:12 PM

You are supporting your point of view based on a 50 year old incident. I am supporting mine based on current statistics.

For the time being, rocket development is a make work program for the aerospace industry that may, eventually produce something the the government may eventually, want to use.  That doesn't have much political pull to it. I can't image either party wanting to fund this.
Title: Re: NASA returning to the moon
Post by: ka9q on February 17, 2019, 09:04:34 PM
I consider myself pretty liberal in most ways, and I'm obviously a supporter of space exploration.

I think much of the problem with Apollo is that it was rightly seen as an extension of the Cold War. Its primary purpose wasn't science but to fight the Russians in the court of global opinion. Since then, space exploration has become a symbol of civilian science, technology and education, things that most (but not all) liberals approve of.

To the extent that some conservatives approve of them too, something could happen. But things are probably too polarized right now for there to be much bipartisan support. It's gotten to the point where each side automatically opposes anything supported by the other side.
Title: Re: NASA returning to the moon
Post by: Peter B on February 18, 2019, 08:48:17 AM
I wouldn't call it competing, but more in the line of stretching resources.   Yes I agree that design changes would be difficult, but not impossible.

The core can't launch without boosters, it can't re-light its RS-25s and land on them. Salvaging and rebuilding the boosters was never particularly close to "reuse", and the new ones burn longer and reenter faster and further downrange, making things worse. The core needs higher thrust to get rid of the boosters, it needs to perform multiple burns in flight, and it needs to be able to reduce thrust by nearly an order of magnitude and still throttle rapidly and precisely over a wide range for landing.

This would be very difficult to achieve with hydrogen propellant, can't be done with the RS-25, and would realistically best be approached by clustering 7 or more engines using a hydrocarbon fuel...like Falcon 9, New Glenn, and Starship do. Changing the propellant to something denser drastically changes the dimensions of the tanks. The core will need its own avionics making it capable of independent flgiht and landing. It'd also have to stage much sooner to reduce reentry stresses, with the second stage providing much more of the launch delta-v.

Practically every detail of the design of SLS works against reuse. The changes to make it even partially reusable would constitute a complete redesign, discarding most of the Shuttle-derived technologies. At most you'd reuse some of the tank design, but even that would need major changes to insulation, etc.

Thank you. That was an impressive and elegant summary.

And I see the SLS currently isn't due to launch until mid-next year. Given the delays in launching any new system, I wonder when that will happen in reality...
Title: Re: NASA returning to the moon
Post by: bknight on February 18, 2019, 12:04:11 PM
I wouldn't call it competing, but more in the line of stretching resources.   Yes I agree that design changes would be difficult, but not impossible.

The core can't launch without boosters, it can't re-light its RS-25s and land on them. Salvaging and rebuilding the boosters was never particularly close to "reuse", and the new ones burn longer and reenter faster and further downrange, making things worse. The core needs higher thrust to get rid of the boosters, it needs to perform multiple burns in flight, and it needs to be able to reduce thrust by nearly an order of magnitude and still throttle rapidly and precisely over a wide range for landing.

This would be very difficult to achieve with hydrogen propellant, can't be done with the RS-25, and would realistically best be approached by clustering 7 or more engines using a hydrocarbon fuel...like Falcon 9, New Glenn, and Starship do. Changing the propellant to something denser drastically changes the dimensions of the tanks. The core will need its own avionics making it capable of independent flgiht and landing. It'd also have to stage much sooner to reduce reentry stresses, with the second stage providing much more of the launch delta-v.

Practically every detail of the design of SLS works against reuse. The changes to make it even partially reusable would constitute a complete redesign, discarding most of the Shuttle-derived technologies. At most you'd reuse some of the tank design, but even that would need major changes to insulation, etc.

You are looking at what has transpired in the development of SLS, What I was referring is what seems like a shortsightedness of NASA to use inventoried RS-25's and building a complete system around them instead of designing for muscle and re-usability.  But maybe that can't ever be a product of a governmental body.

I consider myself pretty liberal in most ways, and I'm obviously a supporter of space exploration.

I think much of the problem with Apollo is that it was rightly seen as an extension of the Cold War. Its primary purpose wasn't science but to fight the Russians in the court of global opinion. Since then, space exploration has become a symbol of civilian science, technology and education, things that most (but not all) liberals approve of.

To the extent that some conservatives approve of them too, something could happen. But things are probably too polarized right now for there to be much bipartisan support. It's gotten to the point where each side automatically opposes anything supported by the other side.

For myself I'm 50-50 and I support space programs, since they do benefit science.
Yes Apollo was a program to beat the Russians(at something in space) and only had small scientific attachments added.
Title: Re: NASA returning to the moon
Post by: Eventcone on February 18, 2019, 12:49:17 PM
(Lurker decloaking...)

It's politicians wanting their "slice of pork" that we have to thank for the deficiencies of the nation's successor to the Saturn V. What a mess.

When one thinks that NASA's most spectacular success was achieved on a philosophy of "waste anything but time", it does not inspire confidence that they will ever take us into an era of sustainable manned deep space missions.

Is it not high time that NASA stopped developing their own flight hardware, and flew their astronauts on commercially available hardware from the likes of SpaceX and others? Surely they could do so much more, for so much less, in much less time?
Title: Re: NASA returning to the moon
Post by: cjameshuff on February 18, 2019, 08:26:32 PM
I wouldn't call it competing, but more in the line of stretching resources.   Yes I agree that design changes would be difficult, but not impossible.

The core can't launch without boosters, it can't re-light its RS-25s and land on them. Salvaging and rebuilding the boosters was never particularly close to "reuse", and the new ones burn longer and reenter faster and further downrange, making things worse. The core needs higher thrust to get rid of the boosters, it needs to perform multiple burns in flight, and it needs to be able to reduce thrust by nearly an order of magnitude and still throttle rapidly and precisely over a wide range for landing.

This would be very difficult to achieve with hydrogen propellant, can't be done with the RS-25, and would realistically best be approached by clustering 7 or more engines using a hydrocarbon fuel...like Falcon 9, New Glenn, and Starship do. Changing the propellant to something denser drastically changes the dimensions of the tanks. The core will need its own avionics making it capable of independent flgiht and landing. It'd also have to stage much sooner to reduce reentry stresses, with the second stage providing much more of the launch delta-v.

Practically every detail of the design of SLS works against reuse. The changes to make it even partially reusable would constitute a complete redesign, discarding most of the Shuttle-derived technologies. At most you'd reuse some of the tank design, but even that would need major changes to insulation, etc.

Thank you. That was an impressive and elegant summary.

And I see the SLS currently isn't due to launch until mid-next year. Given the delays in launching any new system, I wonder when that will happen in reality...

Late next year at the earliest:

Quote from: https://oig.nasa.gov/docs/IG-19-001.pdf
Consequently, in light of the Project’s development delays, we have concluded NASA will be unable to meet its EM-1 launch window currently scheduled  between December 2019 and June 2020.

I wouldn't bet on it launching before 2021.
Title: Re: NASA returning to the moon
Post by: Zakalwe on February 20, 2019, 05:16:18 AM

I wouldn't bet on it launching before 2021. ever

Fixed that for you, no charge.
The Senate Launch System is pork barrel politics.
Title: Re: NASA returning to the moon
Post by: bknight on February 20, 2019, 09:41:14 AM
The first launch will be a long time coming with tinkering with a new welding technique on the first stage tank and all.
Title: Re: NASA returning to the moon
Post by: cjameshuff on February 20, 2019, 06:19:45 PM
The first launch will be a long time coming with tinkering with a new welding technique on the first stage tank and all.

If it actually was a new welding technique, we'd at least be getting that out of this mess. It was actually just thicker metal (requiring changes to the welding tools that didn't work out as hoped) and a redesign of the welding machine to do the weld on a vertical tank. The same technique was used with a horizontal machine for the Shuttle tanks, and for SpaceX's Falcon 9 rockets (also with horizontal machines).

I wonder if experience with the welding technique, and how it scales poorly with thickness, is part of why SpaceX was so interested in using carbon fiber for larger vehicles. And now they've dropped that for stainless steel alloys that are much easier to work with.