Author Topic: The Trump Presidency  (Read 399375 times)

Offline molesworth

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Re: The Trump Presidency
« Reply #255 on: April 18, 2017, 05:10:41 PM »
On another forum I frequent, the simple solution to the North Korean problem was suggested, possibly only half jokingly as :
Quote
"South Korea should surrender, and welcome in their brothers from the North with open arms.  The Kim regime would last about two weeks..."
:)
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Offline Geordie

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Re: The Trump Presidency
« Reply #256 on: April 18, 2017, 09:17:08 PM »
If left unchecked, at a certain point they are going to pose a serious threat to numerous nations.

Exactly. We here in Canada have 'no interest' in this, but if they nail Seattle, the closest American city except for perhaps Anchorage, we'll have to abandon Vancouver, which would to say the least make me deeply unhappy.

Offline twik

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Re: The Trump Presidency
« Reply #257 on: April 24, 2017, 04:59:30 PM »
I wonder if this is what's been needed? Okay, try diplomacy and patience but at a certain point you have to take some type of action. Back about 10 or so years ago, the DPRK was thought to have only one or two "deliverable" nuclear weapons... and that was short range with their largest delivery vehicles. That's now up to 15 or so and their bombs are getting smaller... and their launch vehicles are getting a longer range with bigger payloads.

If left unchecked, at a certain point they are going to pose a serious threat to numerous nations.

Perhaps now is the time to put the brakes on, take away their dangerous toys. The solution would ideally involve China but how long do you wait? One moment you have a yappy puppy... the next, you have a fully grown savage dog.

Possibly...

The thing is, though, the ultimate objective of the Kim regime is survival. Both Kim and his generals would be well aware that going to war would result in at least the loss of their cushy lifestyle and at worst death. Why would they do anything to risk that?

That assumes that Kim and his regime have, in Adam Savage's famous phrase, accepted our reality and not substituted their own.

But Kim isn't even a garden-variety dictator who thrust his own way to power. He's the son of one, and has been given near-divine veneration all his life. How he sees the world must be incredibly different from how someone from the West would see it. He appears to truly see his position as some sort of divine right. How dangerous is it to play with nukes when you're the Chosen One? All his life has been a guaranteed win. I presume even as a toddler no one ever won at making sandcastles with him. The thought of losing probably is beyond his ken.

His mental state is probably something similar to Saddam Hussein, who could have ruled in comfort until he died a natural death if he'd understood the limits of his power, and that God wouldn't automatically make his the winning play every time the roulette wheel was spun.

Offline Geordie

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Re: The Trump Presidency
« Reply #258 on: April 24, 2017, 07:36:47 PM »

  "North Korea follows Songun, or "military-first" policy.[34] It is the country with the highest number of military and paramilitary personnel, with a total of 9,495,000 active, reserve, and paramilitary personnel. Its active duty army of 1.21 million is the fourth largest in the world, after China, the United States and India.[35]"

  https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korea

  He may well think he can take on any and all comers.
« Last Edit: April 24, 2017, 07:43:45 PM by Geordie »

Offline Peter B

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Re: The Trump Presidency
« Reply #259 on: April 24, 2017, 09:50:16 PM »
I wonder if this is what's been needed? Okay, try diplomacy and patience but at a certain point you have to take some type of action. Back about 10 or so years ago, the DPRK was thought to have only one or two "deliverable" nuclear weapons... and that was short range with their largest delivery vehicles. That's now up to 15 or so and their bombs are getting smaller... and their launch vehicles are getting a longer range with bigger payloads.

If left unchecked, at a certain point they are going to pose a serious threat to numerous nations.

Perhaps now is the time to put the brakes on, take away their dangerous toys. The solution would ideally involve China but how long do you wait? One moment you have a yappy puppy... the next, you have a fully grown savage dog.

Possibly...

The thing is, though, the ultimate objective of the Kim regime is survival. Both Kim and his generals would be well aware that going to war would result in at least the loss of their cushy lifestyle and at worst death. Why would they do anything to risk that?

That assumes that Kim and his regime have, in Adam Savage's famous phrase, accepted our reality and not substituted their own.

But Kim isn't even a garden-variety dictator who thrust his own way to power. He's the son of one, and has been given near-divine veneration all his life. How he sees the world must be incredibly different from how someone from the West would see it. He appears to truly see his position as some sort of divine right. How dangerous is it to play with nukes when you're the Chosen One? All his life has been a guaranteed win. I presume even as a toddler no one ever won at making sandcastles with him. The thought of losing probably is beyond his ken.

His mental state is probably something similar to Saddam Hussein, who could have ruled in comfort until he died a natural death if he'd understood the limits of his power, and that God wouldn't automatically make his the winning play every time the roulette wheel was spun.

Re: the bolded text. I don't think so. He wasn't Kim Jong-Il's oldest son, which means there must have been some sort of selection process at which he excelled. On top of that have been the occasional purges, sometimes of close relatives (including uncle and older half-brother).

This suggests to me he's someone with a ruthless survival streak, and in turn this makes me think he's more likely to be a pragmatist.

Sure, I could be wrong - I'm not an expert on North Korea - but that's how I read his behaviour.

Offline Glom

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Re: The Trump Presidency
« Reply #260 on: April 25, 2017, 03:09:09 AM »
Let's say Kim gets ideas above his station and tries it on. The moment he does, he's dead and North Korea is dead. Given the provocation, the Allies swarm into North Korea, ending the division. China at this point cares far more about trade with the rest of the world than it does about their goofy pet project and they know that a united Korea is far more of a business opportunity.

But what happens after the fall of Pyongyang?  They can't just declare the Wall fallen and be done with it. North Korea is far more of an alien landscape than East Germany ever was. There would need to be a period where North Korea is an occupied zone, to be rehabilitated before proper unity can be achieved.

Offline gillianren

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Re: The Trump Presidency
« Reply #261 on: April 25, 2017, 10:51:03 AM »
Also, he's the grandson of the guy who seizes power--and his long-dead grandfather still officially runs the government.
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Offline Geordie

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Re: The Trump Presidency
« Reply #262 on: April 27, 2017, 09:36:10 PM »
[...] threat to numerous nations.

Exactly. We here in Canada have 'no interest' in this [....]

  It's fun to be smug when you have "no interest" (like I really think the DPRK has the ability to deliver any kind of payload to North America.)

  How quickly things change. I'm interested now. We, and I mean BC, not Canada per se, are trying to get into a trade war with the US. Probably a bad idea. All you can do is laugh. Right in the middle of a provincial election even.



https://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=/amp/s/sec.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/christy-clark-v-donald-trump-the-proverbial-knife-to-the-gun-fight/article34831213/%253Fservice%253Damp&ved=0ahUKEwi4soyK-sXTAhUT9GMKHU-SC6EQiJQBCBwwAA&usg=AFQjCNHiNndMvui07iNx47m4ZbbHCkBIwg&sig2=0XfL6FRKvqkPSh58a8qbaA

http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/canada/british-columbia/b-c-moves-to-ban-u-s-coal-transport-in-retaliation-for-softwood-duties-1.4086688

Offline Glom

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Re: The Trump Presidency
« Reply #263 on: April 28, 2017, 08:25:15 AM »
[...] threat to numerous nations.

Exactly. We here in Canada have 'no interest' in this [....]

  It's fun to be smug when you have "no interest" (like I really think the DPRK has the ability to deliver any kind of payload to North America.)

  How quickly things change. I'm interested now. We, and I mean BC, not Canada per se, are trying to get into a trade war with the US. Probably a bad idea. All you can do is laugh. Right in the middle of a provincial election even.



https://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=/amp/s/sec.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/christy-clark-v-donald-trump-the-proverbial-knife-to-the-gun-fight/article34831213/%253Fservice%253Damp&ved=0ahUKEwi4soyK-sXTAhUT9GMKHU-SC6EQiJQBCBwwAA&usg=AFQjCNHiNndMvui07iNx47m4ZbbHCkBIwg&sig2=0XfL6FRKvqkPSh58a8qbaA

http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/canada/british-columbia/b-c-moves-to-ban-u-s-coal-transport-in-retaliation-for-softwood-duties-1.4086688
The last time British Columbia got into a dispute with America, Germany gave them a bunch of Canada's islands.

Offline nomuse

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Re: The Trump Presidency
« Reply #264 on: April 28, 2017, 12:52:00 PM »
There's an odd call-in show going on on public radio (I never seem to tune in early enough to catch the name). The interesting part is they are making a huge effort to get equal numbers of callers self-identified as from different ends of the current political divide.

In any case, most recent show they were asking for letter grades for Trump's first hundred days. The grades were not on a spectrum. A small variety of D's, plus and minus, maybe a C or two. And then, on the other end. A+. Across the board, every single caller. Not the slightest sign of "maybe he isn't quite what we hoped," much less, "Oops." Instead a firm "absolutely the greatest president ever, doing every single thing perfectly."

I'm sorry but I see disconnect here.


(And, no, it isn't helping that in the wider world of debate those opposing Trump oppose him on what HE is doing and saying. Trump supporters still reach for "but Obama....but Hillary....")

Offline onebigmonkey

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Re: The Trump Presidency
« Reply #265 on: April 28, 2017, 03:38:27 PM »
Apparently it's not the job he thought it would be..


Offline Geordie

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Re: The Trump Presidency
« Reply #266 on: April 28, 2017, 05:02:28 PM »
The last time British Columbia got into a dispute with America, Germany gave them a bunch of Canada's islands.

  Oh yeah - the Pig War. I'd forgotten all about that. I guess I learned about it in high school,  but I only learned this interesting detail today:

  "As a result of the negotiations, both sides agreed to retain joint military occupation of the island until a final settlement could be reached, reducing their presence to a token force of no more than 100 men.[6] The "English Camp" was established on the north end of San Juan Island along the shoreline, for ease of supply and access; and the "American Camp" was created on the south end on a high, windswept meadow, suitable for artillery barrages against shipping.[8] Today the Union Jack still flies above the "English Camp", being raised and lowered daily by park rangers, making it one of the few places without diplomatic status where U.S. government employees regularly hoist the flag of another country."

  I wonder where the other few places are, and which flags are involved.

Offline Peter B

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Re: The Trump Presidency
« Reply #267 on: April 29, 2017, 01:28:16 AM »
http://www.abc.net.au/religion/articles/2017/04/28/4660433.htm

Here's an analysis of Trump which makes a lot of sense to me. It assesses him as a guy who's addicted to winning, and to him the only purpose of other people is to help him win whatever his current objective is. But people shouldn't expect any loyalty from him - his interest in them ends as soon as he's reached his objective (or redefined it in such a way that they're no longer useful to him).

This assessment helps explain why, for example, he hasn't bothered to prosecute Hillary Clinton: he only said that during the election campaign because it helped win him votes. Now that he's won the election he'll only pursue a prosecution against Clinton if it will help him reach some new objective.

= = = =

In this regard Trump reminds me of the Australian businessman Kerry Packer. Packer was also the son of a successful businessman, and one who ruthlessly pursued desired objectives, using and discarding people depending on how useful or obstructive they were in reaching his objectives. A Packer story might help explain things...

Back in the 1970s the (government-owned) Australian Broadcasting Commission held the rights to broadcast international cricket on television. It was a threadbare operation, undertaken with a grand total of two cameras, but it still rated well. Packer saw that holding the broadcast rights for such a high-rating sport would allow him to earn heaps in advertising dollars, so he offered a huge amount of money (more than five times what the ABC paid) for the rights, but was turned down. So Packer set up a rebel cricket operation called World Series Cricket (WSC), and he recruited international cricketers from around the world by paying them enough that they could be full-time cricketers (at the time even international cricketers were paid a pittance and needed a full-time job outside cricket). He then screened his own games on his own TV network, in direct competition with the international cricket on the ABC.

It helped that Packer was a cricket fanatic in his own right. He encouraged all sorts of innovations which are now standard to either the game or the process of broadcasting the game (one-day cricket, coloured uniforms, stump microphones, anything up to a dozen cameras). And he also cared for the cricketers - when one cricketer was hit in the head by a cricket ball and needed to get to hospital quickly, Packer put the player in his own limousine and got him there faster than waiting for an ambulance. As a result of Packer's attention to detail WSC soon out-rated the official product, which was now looking distinctly old-fashioned.

After two years Packer finally obtained the rights to broadcast international cricket, and he proceeded to make every last dollar from advertising that he'd expected. He therefore wound up WSC and moved on to his next business venture.

But the thing that struck me about the story was the experience of the cricketers: they appreciated Packer's interest in them, they liked being paid enough that they could play cricket full-time, and they were affected by his concern for the injured cricketer. But once WSC ended, so did the careers of quite a few of the cricketers, as there was now only one game in town, not two. Packer tore up the players' contracts and left them to compete for the now-smaller number of positions available; his interest in the players' welfare simply evaporated, as they were no use to him achieving his next business objective.

Offline Glom

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Re: The Trump Presidency
« Reply #268 on: May 02, 2017, 04:44:41 AM »
Suddenly Britain not looking so bad, maybe?
Ugh. I take it back. I'm a bit worried that the PM has gotten a bit drunk on the "je suis Napolean" koolaid. And the alternative is a nutjob who never met a terrorist he didn't like.

Offline twik

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Re: The Trump Presidency
« Reply #269 on: May 02, 2017, 02:44:29 PM »
I'm becoming more and more convinced I've been magically transplanted into a political satire novel. Because in no real universe would they elect a president who, in a rambling format, would indicate that Andrew Jackson, more than 15 years dead, would have "worked out" the Civil War, and claim that no one until said president had ever wondered why the Civil War occurred. And if he did, there's no way that his supporters wouldn't have started quiet negotiations of their own to gently but firmly remove him from power.